The observed global rise in temperature has different effects at national and regional level. For the development of adaptation measures, it is therefore crucial to know how the climate will behave in the future, both spatially and temporally, because this behavior also has a major impact on the energy balance on the earth's surface and thus on the energy requirements of individual regions, including buildings. As part of this interdisciplinary project funded by the Baden-Württemberg Foundation, the focus is therefore on the energy-efficient refurbishment of existing buildings as one of the most urgent structural tasks with regard to Germany's contribution to meeting international climate protection targets and implementing the energy transition in Germany.

In the climatological part of the project, long-term simulations are carried out with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM. A number of sensitivity studies following the optimal choice of area, resolution and configuration will ultimately result in a model system that can be used for long-term simulations, taking into account the project objectives. For this purpose, not only the different development of the temperature distribution in Baden-Württemberg is considered, but also other derived variables that are relevant for the construction industry. To this end, the project will involve close cooperation with scientists from the KIT partner institutes. The periods under consideration include both past and future decades. To estimate the range of possible future climate developments, the simulations are therefore based on several scenarios, known as an ensemble.